UMich June final reading hit 49.5, up 10.5% from May and the second-largest monthly gain on record. Inflation expectations cooled from 6.6% to 4.6% (1-year) and 4.2% to 3.4% (5-10 year). The floor finally bounced.

National average crashed 15% from the May 21 peak of $4.56 to $3.86 by June 29, the first sub-$4 reading since late March. Iran ceasefire took the geopolitical premium out, just in time for July 4 road trips.

AAA forecasts 72.2 million Americans traveling July 4 week, an all-time record, with 85% driving. TSA cleared more than 3M passengers on June 18 and June 21, with July 5 projected as the single biggest screening day in history.

Tropical Storm Arthur clipped Texas June 17-18 ($4-6B estimated damage), but hurricane season ACE is running 81% below normal. Tornado action stole the show: June was the most active tornado month on record, with Illinois logging 145+ funnels.

July 4 weekend rental searches spiked through mid-June. Beach, lake, and national parks queries all running well above last summer. Drive-market beach destinations are the runaway category.

Industry RevPAR growth remains rate-driven per AirROI March STR data, with demand essentially flat. US Travel Price Index ran +9.8% YoY in May, its fourth straight accelerating month. Guests will pay, but they are watching the totals.

BLS May CPI ran hot at 4.2% YoY, the highest reading since 2023. Energy jumped 3.9% MoM, gasoline 7.0%, airfares 2.7% MoM and 26.7% YoY, hotels 5.1% YoY. Core inflation cooled to 0.2% MoM, but travel-line items are doing the opposite.

The Bounce. Five signals roared back this month: sentiment, gas, TSA, trends, and weather. CPI is the lone wolf running hotter, with airfares up 26.7% YoY pinching trip budgets. The headline message: the consumer found a second wind right when summer needed one.

A record July 4 means your inbox, channels, and guest messages are about to go vertical. Hostfully runs bookings, channels, guest comms, and homeowner reports from one place so you can actually enjoy summer too.

The Bounce: The Getaway Score jumped 14.3 points to 63.5 in July, the biggest single-month gain in index history. Consumer sentiment rebounded 10.5%, gas crashed 15%, and AAA forecasts a record 72.2 million July 4 travelers. The summer pivot is officially on.

The cheapest tank in months meets the busiest week of the year. Gas dropped to $3.86 (first sub-$4 reading since March), and 85% of the record 72.2M July 4 travelers are driving. Drive markets within 3 hours of a major metro are the story of the summer.

Hurricane reprieve, tornado reckoning. ACE is 81% below normal so far this season (Arthur was the only storm), giving Gulf and Atlantic Coast operators a confident summer. Meanwhile June was the most active tornado month ever, with Illinois logging 145+ funnels.

The bill is coming due. CPI hit 4.2% YoY in May, the highest since 2023. Airfares jumped 26.7% YoY, hotels +5.1%, and the US Travel Price Index has accelerated four straight months. Guests will book, but they are doing the math on every line item.